Trump Conviction Has Had ‘No Impact’ on How Americans Will Vote in Key States: Confidential Memo

Former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds up a fist as he arrives back at Trump Tower after being convicted in his criminal trial in New York City, on May 30, 2024. (Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images)

A memo labeled “confidential” from political strategist and pollster Tony Fabrizio to the leadership of the Trump 2024 presidential campaign claims that the recent conviction of former President Donald Trump has led to a surge in awareness of the trial but has had “no impact” on how Americans in seven key swing states plan to vote in the November election.

For weeks, Mr. Fabrizio’s team has been tracking awareness and impact of the Trump trial on voters in the seven battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, per the May 31 memo from Mr. Fabrizio to Trump campaign leadership, which was obtained by The Epoch Times.

On the day that a jury found President Trump guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in order to conceal non-disclosure payments in an alleged bid to sway the 2016 election, there was what Mr. Fabrizio described as a “massive spike” in trial awareness.

While 26 percent of likely voters said that the New York trial was the top story they were following on May 29, that figure jumped to 41 percent on May 30, the day the jury returned a guilty verdict. While this is unsurprising given the tidal wave of media coverage of the conviction, what is surprising is that, in Mr. Fabrizio’s words, “voters appeared to shrug at” the guilty verdict as “there was NO impact on any of the ballots.”

In all three ballot iterations tracked—namely six-way, four-way, and head-to-head with President Joe Biden—not only did President Trump’s overall lead in the seven battleground states remain undented, the memo data showed slight gains for the former president.

‘No Discernible Impact’

The biggest change was in the head-to-head ballot, with 48 percent support for President Trump remaining constant from May 29 to May 30, but support for President Biden falling by two points (shifting to undecided), giving the former president a two-point lead. The other two ballot iterations saw one-point gains for President Trump. While the margin of error in the poll was unclear, the memo suggests it roughly matches the stated boost in numbers for the former president, meaning that even if the gains aren’t statistically significant, voter propensity to vote for President Trump in the seven key states did not suffer.

“President Trump’s lead in every ballot iteration remained statistically unchanged,” Mr. Fabrizio wrote in the memo.

The Trump campaign told donors and supporters earlier this week that most of the trial impact in the battleground states had already been “baked in the cake,” Mr. Fabrizio wrote, adding that he and his team expected a marginal impact on voters from an adverse ruling.

“So far, that seems to be the case,” he wrote, adding that he wouldn’t be surprised to see national polls where deep blue states like California and New York hold great weight, to show shifts in voter preferences based on the unfavorable ruling.

“But as you know, President Trump’s path to 270 Electoral Votes runs through these 7 Target States,” he wrote. “And thus far, we see no discernible impact.”

Earlier in the week, Decision Desk projected that President Trump is slated to clinch 235 electoral votes and President Biden 226 votes, with 77 votes up for grabs. The election reporting service also put the odds of a Trump victory at 58 percent, despite President Biden enjoying an incumbency advantage and bigger campaign war chest.

The contents of Mr. Fabrizio’s memo mark a significant departure from earlier polling from Bloomberg-Morning Consult in January of the seven swing states. That poll found that 9 percent of Republican-leaning voters might not be willing to vote for President Trump if he were to be convicted of a felony.

Current polling, however, dovetails with the contents of his memo.

An average of polls by RealClear Polling as of June 1 indicates that President Trump leads President Biden by 3.1 points in all seven swing states, showing an even greater Trump advantage compared to the pollster’s memo to Trump campaign leadership.

Fundraising Boost

While President Trump’s conviction appears to have little discernible impact on ballots, it did seem to give a big boost to the Trump campaign in terms of donations.

The Trump campaign announced on Friday that—in the 24 hours since the verdict was announced—it had raised nearly $53 million.

“THAT’S MORE THAN $2 MILLION PER HOUR!” the Trump campaign said in a statement, highlighting the fact that over one-third of those opening the wallets are first-time donors. “It is clear that more and more Americans are seeing through the Biden election interference and joining President Trump in the movement to save our nation.”

The outpouring of support for President Trump in the wake of his conviction has been so strong that, in the minutes after the jury returned its guilty verdict, an avalanche of donations to his presidential campaign caused his donation page to temporarily become unavailable.

Speaking at a press conference on Friday in New York, President Trump highlighted the millions of dollars raised and pointed to his lead over President Biden in several polls.

The former president also alleged that President Biden had pulled strings in the background of the trial.

“They are in full concert with the White House and the DOJ (Department of Justice), just so you understand,” President Trump said at the press conference. “All of this is done by Biden and his people.”

President Biden denied these allegations. He said Friday that he had nothing to do with the trial, and that his convicted opponent “was given every opportunity to defend himself.”

“It was a state case, not a federal case. It was heard by a jury of 12 citizens, 12 Americans, 12 people like you, like millions of Americans who’ve served on juries. This jury was chosen the same way every jury in America is chosen. It was a process that Donald Trump’s attorney was part of,” President Biden said from the White House.

In a bid to further persuade voters in the seven battleground states to vote for President Trump, his campaign on Friday launched a new grassroots voter outreach effort dubbed “Trump Force 47,” aiming to engage highly targeted voters through a “neighbor-to-neighbor” organizing model.

It’s a strategy that builds on President Trump’s successful early-state primary efforts and involves coordination with state and local Republican parties to ensure critical voter turnout in November.

“Trump voters and Republicans are more motivated than ever to do their part to defend President Trump from Joe Biden and his band of corrupt liberals while supporting his mission to save our country from destruction,” Trump campaign advisers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles said in a joint statement on the new initiative.